A Roadmap for Moving from Fossil Fuels to 100 Percent Renewable Energy

Excerpt of presentation by Mark Jacobson, director of the Atmosphere and Energy Program at Stanford University, recorded and produced by Melinda Tuhus

In a sobering report issued in October, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading climate scientists, issued a dire warning that the nations of the world have only a 10- to 12-year window to take action to limit an increase in global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Centigrade. The report concludes that an increase beyond 1.5 degrees will substantially increase the likelihood of disastrous drought, wildfires, crop failures, flooding, extreme weather events and coral reef destruction.
At an early November event sponsored by the Connecticut-based group, People’s Action for Clean Energy, Mark Jacobson, director of the atmosphere and energy program at Stanford University, addressed the challenge of climate change, outlining the ways in which the U.S. and the world can achieve conversion from fossil fuels to 100 percent renewable energy.
Jacobson, a specialist in climate modeling and alternative energy and co-founder of the Solutions Project, thinks the U.S. is now equipped with the necessary technology and economic means to stop burning fossil fuels. The only thing that’s missing, he says, is the political will.  Between The Lines’ Melinda Tuhus was at Jacobson’s Nov. 8 talk in Hartford, Connecticut, and brings us these excerpts.
MARK JACOBSON: So, what I want to talk about today is all these renewable energy plans we’ve been developing over the last decade. Our first plan came out in 2009 in Scientific American about how to power the whole world with clean, renewable energy. Really see is it possible, even though we can’t actually implement a global-scale plan on its own, because nobody controls the whole world – fortunately, I guess.
Since then, we’ve been developing individual state plans, then county plans and now city and town plans, but I just want to point this one paper we did in 2014, which had a lot of co-authors, and a lot of students – a plan to repower California for all purposes with just wind, water and solar. I’m happy to say this was just implemented into law a couple months ago, with SB 100, in the electric power sector, not only by the Senate and the Assembly, but the governor signed it, finally. But the governor also issued an executive order that is not binding on the next governor who was just elected, but indicates what his intent is, which was to repower California for all purposes with clean, renewable energy – that’s what the executive order is. The law, SB 100, is just the electric power sector and it effectively goes to 100 percent renewables by 2045 with 60 percent by 2030.

 

More recently, we’ve noticed just this last election, that there are three new governors who all have a platform of 100 percent renewable energy, including Michigan, Illinois and Colorado, and Nevada passed at least the first step of a 50 percent renewable portfolio standard by 2030. So there is some progress. Hawaii has a 100 percent renewable energy standard.

So let’s then turn to policy. What do people think about these energy plans? What’s been done so far? So there have been a couple of public opinion surveys. One was last November. It was 13 countries; 26,000 people took part in the survey, including in the U.S. and Canada. But it’s interesting: 82 percent of those surveyed said they wanted a world with 100 percent renewable energy; that’s not more renewable energy – that’s 100 percent. That’s 8 out of 10 people in the world, if this is statistically accurate, want 100 percent renewable energy, which is amazing. What’s kind of scary is that only 66 percent of the same people think climate change is a significant problem. The only good thing about that is you don’t have to believe in climate change to believe in clean, renewable energy, which is fine – you don’t have to believe in the problem as long as you want to solve it, that’s fine.

But, what is the reason for that? Well, 69 percent of the people said renewables make countries more energy independent; 73 percent say renewables will boost economic growth, and there are others, and jobs as well. So there are a variety of reasons people like renewable energy and they don’t necessarily believe climate change is a significant problem.

In the U.S. there are several resolutions pending in the House and also in the Senate – maybe in the House they can actually be voted on now – to go to 100 percent renewable energy. There’s a House resolution – 540 – that has 60 co-sponsors that calls for the U.S. to support a transition to 100 percent clean, renewable energy. There’s a Senate resolution for a similar thing. There’s a Senate bill 987 to transition from fossil fuels to 100 percent clean and renewable energy by 2050, and there are actually two House bills that are pending – HR 3314 and 3671 – one calls for 100 percent by 2050 and the other one by 2035. So these are sitting in Congress waiting to be voted on.

But actual laws that have been passed include Hawaii, 100 percent renewable electricity law by 2045; California a similar one; Vermont, actually more aggressive – 75 percent renewable electricity by 2032 – this is on the books. New York has a 50 percent renewable electricity law by 2030.

So if I want to summarize, I didn’t talk about jobs, but we did analyze the job creation in all 139 countries and all 50 states and we find that worldwide we can create 24 million more long-term full-time jobs than lost; in the U.S. it’s about 2 million more. We would require only a fifth of a percent of land for footprint for solar PV and CSP with these world energy plans and 0.9 percent for spacing between wind turbines. We’d avoid 4 million to 7 million air pollution deaths per year. We could slow then eventually reverse global warming. We think we can keep the grid stable throughout the world with 100 percent renewables. The cost per kilowatt hour is slightly less than that of fossil fuels. That’s the energy costs, but the health plus energy plus climate costs per kilowatt hour are ¼ that of fossils, and the absolute energy plus health plus climate costs are 1/8 because we’re using 50 percent less energy with the wind-water-solar system.

Finally, transitioning to 100 percent in all energy sectors we think is technically and economically possible; the main barriers are social and political. The solution does require collective willpower of everybody. We can’t just do it in isolation with a few examples. Everybody has to help or at least want to help.

Visit Mark Jacobson’s website at Stanford University.

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